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Photo credit: COMAC |
Fasten your seatbelt and brace up for the disruption of all disruptions in the global aviation industry.
A hawkish challenger, China's COMAC is gearing up to break the duopoly of incumbent Boeing and Airbus in passenger aircraft manufacturing. It's all part of China's rising influence in the aviation sector as it matches towards a certain inevitability to become the dominant player in the aviation sector.
There are other aircraft manufacturers in the industry such as Embraer, United Aircraft Corporation, Bombardier, Dassault Aviation, Textron, General Dynamics and Spirit AeroSystems but both Boeing and Airbus have dominated the sector for decades in a manner that made their competitors looked like minnows.
In the years ahead, Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) will not only enthral the aviation industry and change the competitive landscape into a triopoly but also push to make the C919, CR929 and ARJ21 aircraft series it manufactures the most ordered in the sector.
Initial dismissive attitude of Boeing and Airbus that C919 was a nonstarter, has undergone reality checks and the tone is becoming more circumspect.
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C919 cockpit. Credit: Traveller.com |
Currently, Airbus, a European multinational aerospace corporation founded in 1970, with Dutch heritage, is the world's largest airliner manufacturer as it enjoys the largest airliner orders globally. It delivered a record 863 aircraft in 2019. The 2020 figures are still undergoing compilation but there are indications its order for last year eclipsed its previous records.
Though Airbus’ top-of-the-range commercial aircraft, helicopters, military transports, satellites and launch vehicles have held the aviation world in awe for years, it played second-fiddle to Boeing since 2012.
Europe's Airbus upended Boeing’s leadership after the American airliner’s woes with its bestselling MAX jets exacerbated in 2019. It was the worst year for Boeing in three decades, losing orders for 87 commercial airplanes for the first time in that period.
Boeing, an American multinational corporation, was founded in 1916 and it became a gold standard bearer of sort in the manufacturing of airplanes, rotorcraft, rockets, satellites, telecommunications equipment and missiles.
The foray of COMAC into the sector has been years in the making. Its C919 gained global attention in May 2017 when it made its first commercial flight but the gestation period seems over and the triopoly era seems set to roll in.
C919 already picked 815 orders from 28 customers in 22 countries made up of largely Chinese airlines. The maiden commercial deliveries for C919 are slated for this year to China Eastern Airlines. COMAC on its official website said, in a post dated July 17, 2020, that its ARJ21-700 aircraft had officially joined the fleets of Air China, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines. Reports said 24 of the series were delivered to the Chinese airlines.
That is one of the underlying strategies behind China’s pumping of $45 billion to prop up its own commercial aircraft. China envisaged spending $120 billion annually on commercial aircraft alone. That is about a quarter of the $430 billion spent by airlines worldwide in 2020 according to statista.com.
China’s combined total spend on 8,090 new passenger aircraft and allied services in the next 20 years is estimated by Boeing to be in the neighbourhood of $2.9 trillion, an amount that is equal to the current size of Africa’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
It, therefore, made shrewd immediate and long term sense if Beijing could invest in its own locally manufactured aircraft and keep the bulk of the expenses it must make on aviation in the local economy. It’s also a matter of national pride.
From every parameter, China has the momentum to be the biggest manufacturer of passenger airliner in the world. Not only does it have the population of about 1.4 billion people, it is the world’s second largest economy.
Its economy has consistently been among the fastest growing in the last decade and it has deliberately developed its C919 to be the preference of airlines. China can flex its economic and political muscles internally and externally to make C919 thrive.
The C919 has larger lavatories than what other airline manufacturers currently offer, meaning that the era of squeezing into small airplane toilet compartments is over and passengers can now enjoy the premium convenience of using a best-in-class lavatory in the air without cramps.
C919 also has bigger space in the aisle, thereby making it easier for the cabin and crew to manoeuvre their trolleys. It’s a space even passengers would love, particularly those who are claustrophobic.
In a world now redefined by compliance with Covid-19 protocols, adequate space in the air or on the land is a factor everyone will eagerly embrace.
The concept of the big space was also extended to the galley, the arena that serves as the holding bay/kitchenette for the crew to discharge their duties. No longer will the cabin crew need to be bound in a tiny cubicle to prep up before serving passengers.
The biggest attraction to airliners in C919 is the carbon footprint said to be more efficient than Boeing 737 and Airbus’ A320.
The CFM LEAP-1C engine, which was selected by COMAC as the sole Western engine option for the C919, offers "a 15% reduction in fuel consumption and CO2 emissions versus current engines, and up to a 50% margin on NOx emissions," said Safran to CNN late last year.
Safran also said the engines will substantially reduce noise in and around the airports where the C919 operates.
America’s GE Aviation and French high-tech aero-engine manufacturer, Safran jointly manufactured the C919 Leap -1C engines. C919 has the capacity for between 150 and 180 passengers.
Everything is beginning to crystallise for the Chinese aviation sector. China was projected to be the largest aviation market in the world by 2025, it achieved that feat five years earlier, leading the global aviation industry recovery post Covid 19 pandemic.
China plans to build 200 airports in the next 25 years, it already shows its capabilities with the adroit delivery of the $65 billion Xinjiang International Airport.
China needs almost 10,000 passenger aircraft in two decades, it has already perfected the strategy to meet its local aircraft demand.
According to South China Morning Post, Chinese Scientists have successfully tested a revolutionary 12,000MPH hypersonic jet engine that could fly planes or missiles to anywhere in the world within two hours.
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China's advanced FC-31 fighter plane is projected to make an appearance in 2021. |
China is beginning to look like a future monopolistic player in the aviation sector. Is there a chance that China may in the future become the dominant player in the aviation sector? Many aviation experts may readily concur. What could be at dispute is when or how soon?