Day of reckoning for political class

In Nigeria, it is a season of anomie with an unprecedented fear that the country is drifting towards a failed state (let's hope the drift doesn't metastasise because of the grim implications). 

I, therefore, cannot say how effective Ogun State Governor in Southwest Nigeria, Prince Dr. Dapo Abiodun, has been in governing his state since he got there almost 2 years ago. 

Even in the midst of the mist, it is easy to see his penchant for gratifying public desires. A couple of times when there were public outcries against official actions or misdemeanors by state agents, his government took preemptive strikes that indicated he sided with the people. It's obvious his officials are tracking the social media and taking steps to at least meet public expectations. 

Perhaps Abiodun's government sees the people of the state as strategic stakeholders it must do whatever it takes to satisfy. 

Governance is not rocket science if leaders can do their homework to understand the expectations of the people and their pain points and take proactive measures to give the people what they want. 

That is the kernel of the social contract between a government and the people. With the power of the social media, a government can identify critical issues within a few days, devise effective solutions, iterate and implement. 

That's the counsel to Nigerian leaders: use the enormous power of social media positively to govern better. The proclivity is rather about an inordinate desire to curb the influence of social media, an adventure that may blow up in the faces of its proponents. 

An elected official is in power at the pleasure or discretion of the people. In Nigeria, an entrenched and dubious scheme of sustained electoral fraud has gotten leaders so conceited to believe they can misrule, disingenuously manipulate votes and remain in power to continually oppress, suppress and depress the people. 

Unfortunately for the Nigerian political class, they failed to realise that it all adds up in the final analysis. At some point, the people will take back their power and reallocate it to those they think will serve their best interest.

There were 100 major antigovernment protests in 2020 including the anti-SARS protest in Nigeria, according to Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, resulting in the fall of 30 governments or leaders. Some of the biggest factors that provoked the protests were corruption, electoral fraud and impunity by law enforcement officials. 

It may be one day or one decade from now, but one thing is certain: the day of reckoning is beckoning for the Nigerian political class. It's inevitable.

China's indelible lifting of 850 million people out of poverty in 7 years

China has just taught the world an unforgettable lesson. With compacted political will, it is possible to move 850 million people out of poverty in 7 years. That is more than half the size of Africa's population, more than triple the population of the US  and over one hundred million more than the entire population of Europe. 

This is phenomenal by all standards. When I came to the United States in 2002, I heard the stories of desperate Chinese people who paid between $10,000 and $20,000 (that in itself is a lot) in order to escape poverty and iron-fist rule in their country and travel on the high sea with all the attendant risks, to settle in the US, a land flowing with honey, milk and freedom. Between 2000 and 2009, according to the Migration Policy Institute, 637,400 Chinese born immigrants obtained the US green cards.

All the liberation-seekers could see in their homeland was despair, poverty, limitations and hopelessness.

China, as it seemed or projected, was on the road to perdition until its leaders recalibrated and started taking critical steps towards redemption, internal confidence-building, growth and now dominance. 

The biggest trigger for the Chinese economic turnaround was its decision to open its economy to the world about 41 years ago. It was a smart move as China would later become the supply chain hub for the world's manufacturing.

Initial baby steps turned to giant strides in 2013 when China set a target to eliminate poverty by 2020. This was a decade shorter than the date of 2030 set by the World Bank in April 2013 when the global financial institution announced a new goal to end extreme poverty in a generation. Even that target of having not more than 3% of the world's population living on just $1.90 a day by 2030 is comedic but like they say in leadership, it is better to take an action, no matter how suboptimal, rather than failing to lift a finger.

Today, though over 1.4 billion people live in China, the country has fewer poor people than the US, the world's largest economy with a population of 300 million people and just about a quarter the size of the Chinese population.

Adopting a philosophy of "no state left behind", China mobilised national resources to support all the regions of the country lagging behind in development. It devoted its energy to providing road infrastructure, housing and other amenities in the rural areas.

China stoked the development of tourism in the regions as a vital step towards resuscitating the rural economy. Simultaneously, it also pumped resources into the development of rural agriculture, knowing as a conservative welfarist state that food security is fundamental to sustainable growth.

In ticking the boxes, China also provided universal health insurance coverage for its entire population and started relocating its poorest of the poor from rickety shelters to state-built brand new apartments. 

An emerging global champion in technology, China's broadband coverage extends to over 98% of its rural villages. Whether you are in the Gulin Hills or in Tuvas village in Kanas, Xinjiang, you can be sure of having high-speed internet access.

Learning from its recent bitter trade war with the US, China has now emphasised domestic consumption as a strategic national weapon. With the economic success of China came a rising middle class with a passion for foreign cars and other imported goods. 

Mainland China is now mobililising its citizenry to concentrate on local consumption of goods and services to stimulate the economy as part of the Made-in-China 2025 strategy. Where it fell short, it is quickly ramping up local production. For instance, China used to import tubes from Europe to meet up local demand for vaccines. China swiftly set machinery in motion to address the shortcoming and is now self sufficient in that regard.

Its focus is now fully on the technological space where it has served notice of its intention to stop being a mere imitator to becoming the global leader. It is an intention that is becoming increasingly evident to the world. China is the undisputed leader in 5G technology and is making enormous waves in Artificial Intelligence and Internet of Things (IoT). 

China has also emerged in 2020 as the largest aviation market in the world. International Air Transport Association (IATA) says China is leading the global aviation industry recovery after the coronavirus pandemic. Though, the first case of new coronavirus was identified in Wuhan, China in December, 2019, China has managed to outsmart the virus.

Beijing has also successfully broken the duopoly of Boeing and Airbus by becoming the third country in the world to have the capacity to produce passenger aircraft in commercial quantity. The Chinese government pumped $45 billion to propel Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (Comac) to make the C919 series which now has 815 orders from 28 countries. 

According to an analysis by Boeing, China would need 8,090 new passenger aircraft deliveries and allied services in the next 20 years valued at $2.9 trillion. By smartly investing in the development of its own aircraft and other technologies, China will keep the bulk of that fund in its local economy. That is how to be the next superpower.

What Africa thinks of Donald Trump

In just about two weeks, President Donald John Trump will be history as the sitting President of the United States of America, the most powerful country in the world. By implication, Donald Trump from January 20, 2021 by 12 noon, will seize to be the most powerful man in the world.

If he does not make any trip to Africa before he vacates office, which is as surefooted as the earth rotating on its axis and night changing into day, then Trump will join 37 other American Presidents who never set foot in Africa during their tenure. Only eight PROTUS ever did (Franklin D. Roosevelt, Dwight Eisenhower, Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, George H. W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama), according to records.

From his comments and body language, Trump thinks little of Africa, a continent of 1.35 billion people

he condescendingly dismissed as a shithole and particularly loathes some of its leaders, one of whom he decorated with an unbefitting epaulet as revealed in a 2018 Financial Times report, saying he never wanted to meet anyone that lifeless again.

There is no love lost between a strategic continent and the leader of the free world. Africa also thinks its relationship with the US deteriorated during the Trump era. In 2017 for instance, of all the Foreign Direct Investments Africa attracted, less than 1% came from the US while only 1.2% of US exports went to the continent. From 2014 to 2017, US goods shipped to Africa declined to $14 billion from $25 billion. 

Some of the previous American presidents introduced various programmes like the 2000 African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) to cultivate stronger ties with continental Africa. Africans also ranked among major beneficiaries of the US Diversity Visa Programme, the visa lottery policy. That programme has in reality helped the US to suck some of the brightest brains out of Africa. 

No one will begrudge the US for that. If you don’t treasure your assets, someone who does will grab it! Indeed, many of the beneficiaries of that programme are grateful to the US for giving them a second chance in life while some are furious with African leaders for impoverishing the people and squandering the continent's resources.

Trump, however, did not hide his disgust for the programme and he capitalised on a Department of Homeland Security report that a man who drove a rented truck into a crowd of cyclists and pedestrians in New York was a 2010 beneficiary of the programme from Uzbekistan. He announced that he had requested Congress to initiate moves to dismantle the Programme which makes available 55,000 immigrant visas annually to diversify the immigrant population in the US. Yes, throw the baby away with the bathwater!

Yet, the relationship between Trump and Africa was not all gloom and doom. Early December, 2020, the

Trump administration reversed a 30-year policy which categorised Sudan as a state sponsor of terrorism. The Trump regime also facilitated the normalisation of relationship between Sudan and Israel as well as Morocco and Israel. 

For acquiescing as scripted, US recognised Morocco as having rights over Western Sahara contrary to a pact on the vexed issue by world leaders. Additionally, the US agreed to sell arms worth over $1 billion to Morocco. Trump is the grand commander of functional diplomatic generosity. If you do according to his wish, he will pull all the stops to reward your steadfastness.

There is also a strong military collaboration between the US and Africa, a tradition which has not

been diminished by the papered over tension between the duo. Out of the 800 military bases the US is said to maintain in 80 countries, theintercept.com claimed 27 are in 15 African countries, based on the information it gathered from the Pentagon map.

Africa may currently seem like a statistically insignificant continent to be toyed with; the outlook

shows that the fortune of the continent is about to rise astronomically. Now that the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is taking off at full steam, the combined Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the continent is projected to ramp up from $2.9 trillion in 2019 to $29 trillion by 2050. Just combine the current GDP of the EU and US and you will get a drift of the kind of powerhouse Africa will become in 30 years.

African people and African leaders may not openly admit it but there is an increasing gulf between continental Africa and the US. It is a gulf that is compelling African leaders and businesses to gravitate more towards China, the new powerful force which is more receptive to treating Africa like an equal partner to be nurtured and supported. Not even a warning that many African countries may lose their sovereignty to Chinese debts has slowed the momentum. Africa needs help and help it will take from any willing ally.

Between 2000 and 2018, the value of Chinese loan to African governments and state-owned enterprises grossed $148 billion while Beijing and its banks are willing to do more. Officially, China does not show a condescending attitude to Africa. Whatever it feels about the continent, China keeps under wrap in the depth of its diplomatic closet. Sometimes, whatever you do not know does not hurt.

Africa is convinced Trump does not care a fig about it and many Africans are hoping that the Joe Biden Presidency may offer the US and the continent a fresh start to reset their relationship.

While China’s lead over the US in Africa may seem to be accelerating to a commanding height, the US has a chance to recalibrate its relationship with Africa by working with the continent in a collaborative manner to eradicate poverty through the enhancement of the capacity of the people in the region. It is a strategy that will, in due course, shift Africa’s momentum of affinity in favour of the US.

Africa does not have to be a zero-sum game for Europe and America where the continent must be kept underdeveloped in order to continuously provide the West with cheap natural resources. The US can help Africa to develop and then creatively and proportionately decide what it wants to keep from the fortune made through its support. 

Africa is tired of wearing the toga of the poorest continent in the world despite having the world’s largest concentration of natural resources in commercial quantity. The continent has served notice that it will no longer be an easy prey to manipulate for unbridled socio-economic and political dominion again.

Merry Covid Xmas

It's the most wonderful time of the year. Most people look forward to it irrespective of religious inclinations. The exchange of gifts, pleasantries, camaraderie, splendour, the stunning Xmas lights and that unique air of conviviality and generosity. 

It never disappoints even when the economic prospect is not as bright as anticipated at the individual, corporate or national level. Everyone loves Xmas. From the most lavish lights and decorations lining the trees on the entire stretch of Champs Elysees' 1.9 km Street in Paris to the Medellin in Columbia, Hong Kong's Symphony of lights, the Rockefeller Centre's Xmas tree lighting show in New York, the 13-metre centrepiece Christmas tree lighting at Emirates Palace, Abu Dhabi and the glittering transformation of Ajose Adeogun Street in Victoria Island, Lagos to the pride of Africa, it is one helluva of adoration with an endless flow of human traffic.

That was in the past. With over 79 million people infected and over 1.7 million people dead (as at December 23), it is a gloomy, corrosive, Covid Xmas this year. The decorations are mostly still there but the protocols forbid large social gatherings, part of the measures adopted to curb the bodybags. It's an inevitable burst to the bubble of the annual ritual.

There is hardly anyone in the world who has not lost someone precious to the coronavirus pandemic- a friend, co-worker, neighbour, acquaintance, kinsman, townsman. The last time the world experienced a worst catastrophe was the 1918 flu pandemic which claimed 50 million lives worldwide. Researchers predicted that this SARS-CoV-2 may affect 60% of the world population. That means a whopping 4.68 billion people risk infection by Covid-19 or its variants! That's always the danger with airborne transmission. It's exactly the same reasons why the World Health Organisation advocated mask-wearing, hand-washing and social distancing. It's a small price to pay for good health, peace and quietude.

Thankfully, over 200 vaccines are in various stages of development, according to the World Health Organisation, some of which have been approved swiftly to stem the tide. It could take as long as 10 years to develop a vaccine but with the aid of Artificial Intelligence and years of research, the world was able to crack it within one year, a glowing tribute to scientific breakthroughs. 

Apart from lost lives, coronavirus inflicted maximum damage on millions of businesses. Even the young ones who are equipping themselves for a brighter future were scotched. A United Nations statistic projected that over 1.6 billion students in 198 countries had their academic programmes disrupted by the pandemic. 

The impact will be with mankind for years but economic rebound from the virus is anticipated to intensify from the second quarter of 2021. Some people across the world are fortunate to live in climes where their governments have introduced palliatives to cushion the effect of the pandemic while others think it is all over because there is no help from anywhere in the horizon. 

This is the time for people around the world to reach out and see who they can save from melancholy and morbidity. Any help to your friend, neighbour or a total stranger will go a long way to saving lives. Coronavirus killed social gatherings but it should not kill the heart of gold in us all. 

#Xmas